A mere two months prior that the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six games, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side who have strung together 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – yet right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more when facing United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The winger might become the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
